Essay: Discussion on Conjunction Fallacy

Sample Essay

Words 1,210

The Conjunction Fallacy is a commonly observed phenomenon; people regularly judge a compound event to have a greater amount of probability than a component event of the compound event.

Many different theories exist to explain why this fallacy occurs. It was first posited that the fallacy occurred due to the way the question was framed, however better and clearer ways of framing the question do not usually result in better results (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983).

Finding out why the conjunction fallacy occurs is extremely important in understanding human cognition. Humans commonly consider themselves to be the only rational creatures in existence, the widespread observation of the conjunction fallacy shows that this may be a distorted self-view.

The existence of the conjunction fallacy has widespread implications for human cognition. It implies that people regularly misestimate probabilities of events in their daily lives.

The judicial system often requires juries composed of members of the general public to hear two competing stories, the jurors are then required to decide which story they consider more plausible, the existence of the conjunction fallacy shows that people may regularly regard the more improbable narrative as the more plausible one (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983).

The economic system of modern societies is built upon the estimation of probabilities; the existence of the conjunction fallacy implies that the markets may not be trusted to undertake the most rational course.

Since this error is so widespread it is possible that many actions undertaken by governments that have great implications for nations and humanity at large may be based on threats which have very low probabilities while ignoring much greater threats.

Thus we can say that the existence of this fallacy has widespread implications for humanity, human societies and human individuals and it is most important to study this fallacy further, explore why it occurs, and make people aware of its existence and to teach them to avoid falling into this fallacy when making any decisions.

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