Essay: Investment Banking Community
In the financial products area, legal actions taken by the US government will undoubtedly constrain the activities of multinational companies and the investment banking community. The market philosophy de jour seems to be too globalised but not too diversified. Hence, multinational companies are likely continued to spin off non-core businesses while pursuing acquisitions to increase their market presence as global competitors within their core businesses. The following five predictions are offered with caution as to their inherent unreliability.
First, as early as 1999, and almost certainly within the next several years, legislation will be enacted authorising US banks and their affiliates to offer a full range of financial services. The barriers between banking and commerce will remain in place, although the authority of bank affiliates to engage in proprietary investments will be substantially liberalised.
Second, the level of US bank consolidation permitted by law is likely to trail behind that permitted in other countries. Absent a major change in US antitrust analysis, it is unlikely that consolidation of the type that has occurred in the Netherlands and Switzerland, and has been proposed in France and Japan, could occur in the US.
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